SEMI-FINALArlington · AT&T Stadium

France

ROUTE HERE

bt Sweden 3-1

bt Paraguay 1-0

bt Morocco 2-0

6/6OF THEIR GAMES CALLED

Spain

ROUTE HERE

bt Austria 3-0

bt Portugal 1-0

bt Belgium 2-1

5/5OF THEIR GAMES CALLED

Win and you play in the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium on Sunday 19 July. Lose and you play the third-place play-off in Miami three days earlier.

QUICK ANSWER

France vs Spain Semi-final prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's model gives France a 63% chance of going through in the Semi-final between France and Spain. France 63% · Spain 37%. Most likely scoreline: France 1-0 Spain. These are ADVANCEMENT probabilities — a knockout tie cannot end level, so the draw is resolved through extra time and penalties rather than left hanging. Match # 101 at AT&T Stadium, Arlington.

SEMI-FINAL · MATCH 101

MODEL · FRA 50%ARLINGTON14 Jul UTC

France vs Spain prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the France vs Spain Semi-final fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

FRANCE

63%

SPAIN

37%

TO ADVANCE · INCLUDES EXTRA TIME & PENALTIES

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.99 — 1.08

★ MODE

1–1

15.1%

0–0

14.3%

0–1

12.0%

1–0

10.9%

0–2

7.3%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

34%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

43%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

FRANCE · PL STARS

1.Lucas DigneAston Villa
2.Malo GustoChelsea
3.Ibrahima KonatéLiverpool

SPAIN · PL STARS

1.David RayaArsenal
2.Pedro PorroSpurs
3.Marc CucurellaChelsea

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

France vs Spain World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives France 50%, draw 22%, and Spain 28% in the Semi-final — France favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

France vs Spain score prediction

The model leans France by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

France vs Spain Semi-final — when & where

Semi-final fixture at Arlington, kickoff Tue 14 Jul, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (FRA #1 vs ESP #2), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

France vs Spain line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · France vs Spain

Who is the favourite to win France vs Spain Semi-final?

France is the model's favourite to advance, at 63%. France 63% · Spain 37%. These are advancement probabilities: a knockout tie cannot end level, so the draw is resolved through extra time (where the stronger side has the edge) and penalties (which are a coin flip).

When and where is France vs Spain?

France face Spain at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, kickoff Tuesday 14 July at 19:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for France vs Spain?

The model's most likely scoreline is France 1-0 Spain (expected goals 1.0 v 1.1). Note this is the most likely DECISIVE scoreline: a knockout tie cannot end in a draw, so we do not quote one. Knockout football is tighter than the raw expected goals imply — expect a narrow margin, and a real chance of extra time.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

France →Spain →Pick the score →Full bracket →