QUICK ANSWER

Mexico vs England Round of 16 prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's AI model gives England at 50% to win the Round of 16 clash between Mexico and England. Mexico 26% · draw 24% · England 50%. Match # 92 at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City.

ROUND OF 16 · MATCH 92

MODEL · ENG 50%MEXICO CITY6 Jul UTC

Mexico vs England prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the Mexico vs England Round of 16 fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

MEXICO

26%

DRAW

24%

(then ET / pens)

ENGLAND

50%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.42 — 0.75

★ MODE

1–0

14.8%

1–1

13.6%

0–0

12.9%

2–0

11.5%

2–1

8.6%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

37%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

41%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

MEXICO · PL STARS

1.Raúl JiménezFulham

ENGLAND · PL STARS

1.Dean HendersonCrystal Palace
2.Jordan PickfordEverton
3.James TraffordMan City

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Mexico vs England World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Mexico 26%, draw 24%, and England 50% in the Round of 16 — England favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Mexico vs England score prediction

The model leans England by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

Mexico vs England Round of 16 — when & where

Round of 16 fixture at Mexico City, kickoff Mon 6 Jul, 00:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (MEX #15 vs ENG #4), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

Mexico vs England line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · Mexico vs England

Who is the favourite to win Mexico vs England Round of 16?

England is the model's favourite at 50%. Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator combines each side's team strength and the matchup context to derive the probability.

When and where is Mexico vs England?

Mexico face England at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, kickoff Monday 6 July at 00:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for Mexico vs England?

The model's predicted scoreline is Mexico 1-1 England (expected goals 1.4 v 0.7). Goals-over-2.5 sits around 59%. Knockout matches are typically tighter than the model implies, so in a level tie expect low-scoring margins and extra-time risk.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

Mexico →England →Pick the score →Full bracket →