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Netherlands vs Morocco Round of 32 prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's AI model gives Netherlands at 50% to win the Round of 32 clash between Netherlands and Morocco. Netherlands 50% · draw 24% · Morocco 26%. Match # 75 at Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe.

ROUND OF 32 · MATCH 75

MODEL · NED 50%GUADALUPE30 Jun UTC

Netherlands vs Morocco prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the Netherlands vs Morocco Round of 32 fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

NETHERLANDS

50%

DRAW

24%

(then ET / pens)

MOROCCO

26%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

2.00 — 1.64

★ MODE

1–1

9.6%

2–1

8.6%

1–2

7.1%

2–2

7.1%

3–1

5.7%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

70%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

71%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

NETHERLANDS · PL STARS

1.Mark FlekkenBrentford
2.Robin RoefsSunderland
3.Bart VerbruggenBrighton

MOROCCO · PL STARS

1.Noussair MazraouiMan Utd
2.Chadi RiadCrystal Palace
3.Issa DiopWest Ham

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Netherlands vs Morocco World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Netherlands 50%, draw 24%, and Morocco 26% in the Round of 32 — Netherlands favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Netherlands vs Morocco score prediction

The model leans Netherlands by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

Netherlands vs Morocco Round of 32 — when & where

Round of 32 fixture at Guadalupe, kickoff Tue 30 Jun, 01:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (NED #7 vs MAR #8), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

Netherlands vs Morocco line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · Netherlands vs Morocco

Who is the favourite to win Netherlands vs Morocco Round of 32?

Netherlands is the model's favourite at 50%. Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator combines each side's team strength and the matchup context to derive the probability.

When and where is Netherlands vs Morocco?

Netherlands face Morocco at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, kickoff Tuesday 30 June at 01:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for Netherlands vs Morocco?

The model's predicted scoreline is Netherlands 2-2 Morocco (expected goals 2.0 v 1.6). Goals-over-2.5 sits around 59%. Knockout matches are typically tighter than the model implies, so in a level tie expect low-scoring margins and extra-time risk.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

Netherlands →Morocco →Pick the score →Full bracket →