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Paraguay vs France Round of 16 prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's AI model gives France at 84% to win the Round of 16 clash between Paraguay and France. Paraguay 6% · draw 10% · France 84%. Match # 89 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia.

ROUND OF 16 · MATCH 89

MODEL · FRA 84%PHILADELPHIA4 Jul UTC

Paraguay vs France prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the Paraguay vs France Round of 16 fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

PARAGUAY

DRAW

10%

(then ET / pens)

FRANCE

84%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.76 — 2.39

★ MODE

0–2

12.2%

0–3

9.7%

1–2

9.3%

0–1

9.3%

1–1

8.8%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

61%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

49%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

PARAGUAY · PL STARS

1.Diego GómezBrighton

FRANCE · PL STARS

1.Lucas DigneAston Villa
2.Malo GustoChelsea
3.Ibrahima KonatéLiverpool

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Paraguay vs France World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Paraguay 6%, draw 10%, and France 84% in the Round of 16 — France favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Paraguay vs France score prediction

The model leans France by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 76%.

Paraguay vs France Round of 16 — when & where

Round of 16 fixture at Philadelphia, kickoff Sat 4 Jul, 21:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (PAR #40 vs FRA #1), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

Paraguay vs France line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · Paraguay vs France

Who is the favourite to win Paraguay vs France Round of 16?

France is the model's favourite at 84%. Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator combines each side's team strength and the matchup context to derive the probability.

When and where is Paraguay vs France?

Paraguay face France at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, kickoff Saturday 4 July at 21:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for Paraguay vs France?

The model's predicted scoreline is Paraguay 1-2 France (expected goals 0.8 v 2.4). Goals-over-2.5 sits around 76%. Knockout matches are typically tighter than the model implies, so in a level tie expect low-scoring margins and extra-time risk.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

Paraguay →France →Pick the score →Full bracket →