QUICK ANSWER

Portugal vs Spain Round of 16 prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's AI model gives Spain at 50% to win the Round of 16 clash between Portugal and Spain. Portugal 28% · draw 22% · Spain 50%. Match # 93 at AT&T Stadium, Arlington.

ROUND OF 16 · MATCH 93

MODEL · ESP 50%ARLINGTON6 Jul UTC

Portugal vs Spain prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the Portugal vs Spain Round of 16 fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

PORTUGAL

28%

DRAW

22%

(then ET / pens)

SPAIN

50%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.74 — 0.88

★ MODE

0–0

21.3%

0–1

15.9%

1–1

14.4%

1–0

13.1%

0–2

7.7%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

22%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

32%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

PORTUGAL · PL STARS

1.José SáWolves
2.Diogo DalotMan Utd
3.Matheus NunesMan City

SPAIN · PL STARS

1.David RayaArsenal
2.Pedro PorroSpurs
3.Marc CucurellaChelsea

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Portugal vs Spain World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Portugal 28%, draw 22%, and Spain 50% in the Round of 16 — Spain favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Portugal vs Spain score prediction

The model leans Spain by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

Portugal vs Spain Round of 16 — when & where

Round of 16 fixture at Arlington, kickoff Mon 6 Jul, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (POR #5 vs ESP #2), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

Portugal vs Spain line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · Portugal vs Spain

Who is the favourite to win Portugal vs Spain Round of 16?

Spain is the model's favourite at 50%. Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator combines each side's team strength and the matchup context to derive the probability.

When and where is Portugal vs Spain?

Portugal face Spain at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, kickoff Monday 6 July at 19:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for Portugal vs Spain?

The model's predicted scoreline is Portugal 1-1 Spain (expected goals 0.7 v 0.9). Goals-over-2.5 sits around 59%. Knockout matches are typically tighter than the model implies, so in a level tie expect low-scoring margins and extra-time risk.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

Portugal →Spain →Pick the score →Full bracket →