QUICK ANSWER

United States vs Belgium Round of 16 prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's AI model gives Belgium at 50% to win the Round of 16 clash between United States and Belgium. United States 28% · draw 22% · Belgium 50%. Match # 94 at Lumen Field, Seattle.

ROUND OF 16 · MATCH 94

MODEL · BEL 50%SEATTLE7 Jul UTC

United States vs Belgium prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the United States vs Belgium Round of 16 fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

UNITED STATES

28%

DRAW

22%

(then ET / pens)

BELGIUM

50%

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.71 — 1.68

★ MODE

1–1

10.8%

2–1

8.3%

1–2

8.1%

2–2

7.0%

2–0

4.9%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

66%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

68%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

UNITED STATES · PL STARS

1.Chris RichardsCrystal Palace
2.Antonee RobinsonFulham
3.Tyler AdamsBournemouth

BELGIUM · PL STARS

1.Senne LammensMan Utd
2.Timothy CastagneFulham
3.Maxim De CuyperBrighton

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

United States vs Belgium World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives United States 28%, draw 22%, and Belgium 50% in the Round of 16 — Belgium favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

United States vs Belgium score prediction

The model leans Belgium by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

United States vs Belgium Round of 16 — when & where

Round of 16 fixture at Seattle, kickoff Tue 7 Jul, 00:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (USA #16 vs BEL #9), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

United States vs Belgium line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · United States vs Belgium

Who is the favourite to win United States vs Belgium Round of 16?

Belgium is the model's favourite at 50%. Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator combines each side's team strength and the matchup context to derive the probability.

When and where is United States vs Belgium?

United States face Belgium at Lumen Field in Seattle, kickoff Tuesday 7 July at 00:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for United States vs Belgium?

The model's predicted scoreline is United States 2-2 Belgium (expected goals 1.7 v 1.7). Goals-over-2.5 sits around 59%. Knockout matches are typically tighter than the model implies, so in a level tie expect low-scoring margins and extra-time risk.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

United States →Belgium →Pick the score →Full bracket →