Reading the price-movement chart
Each FPL price-change cycle works the same way: net daily ownership above +5% triggers a price rise (+£0.1m); below −5% triggers a fall. By GW4 the cumulative effect on the top 30 picks averages +£0.3m for risers and −£0.2m for fallers. The above chart projects the GW1-4 net change.
The implication for your draft: every £0.1m matters. Players who rise from £7.0m to £7.4m cost £0.4m more if you wait — which is half a £0.5m budget enabler. Players who fall from £9.5m to £9.1m become £0.4m cheaper — which can unlock a different premium. Time your transfers around the projection.
The risers concentrate in two clusters: (1) the highest-ownership template picks where everyone piles in pre-GW1 (Haaland, Saka, Bruno), and (2) the breakout value picks who outperformed last season's projection (Semenyo, Thiago, Roefs). The fallers are players whose 25/26 ownership inflated above their projected 26/27 output.
The 8 projected risers
Erling Haaland (+£0.5m): the biggest projected rise. 56% top-1k captaincy + 92%+ template ownership pushes the daily net above +6%. Get him before GW1 deadline or pay 14.5m through wildcard.
Antoine Semenyo (+£0.4m): the breakout pick. 12% projected ownership at £7m makes him the highest xP/£m forward pick in the model. Once the FPL community catches up, the daily net flips above +5%.
Igor Thiago (+£0.4m): same logic as Semenyo. 22 PL goals in 25/26 + cheap entry price + soft Brentford opening run = community FOMO once GW1 punditry surfaces him.
Bukayo Saka (+£0.3m): post-Salah, the natural £9.5m premium-mid anchor. Champions opener and 18% projected ownership.
Bruno Fernandes (+£0.3m): same — the new template Tier-2 captain at £8.5m. Set-piece monopoly + 21 PL-record assists.
Robin Roefs (+£0.3m): the budget GK enabler. 28% projected ownership at £4.5m once the community lands on him.
Gabriel (+£0.2m): defensive premium anchor. 200+ pts in 25/26.
Alexander Isak (+£0.2m): the differential captain bet at 22% projected ownership.
The 4 projected fallers
Cole Palmer (−£0.4m): the biggest projected drop. 102-point 25/26 collapse under Maresca makes the community wait for Alonso-bounce confirmation before re-investing. Fade in your draft; revisit at £9.1m if pre-season minutes hit.
Mohammed Kudus (−£0.2m): Spurs new manager + Maddison set-piece take + Kudus role uncertainty. Net daily ownership drops 5-6% pre-GW1.
Phil Foden (−£0.2m): Man City system rotation. Haaland-and-only-Haaland City exposure has been the model template for two seasons.
Kai Havertz (−£0.1m): Arsenal's striker spot uncertain. Watkins (£8.0m) and Isak (£9.0m) are cheaper better-EV alternatives.
How to time the rises and falls
Risers — get them in your initial draft BEFORE the GW1 deadline (Saturday 22 August 11:30 BST). Once the first price rises hit overnight Sunday → Monday after GW1, you pay +£0.1m per riser per round.
Fallers — if you own one and the model fades them, sell within 72 hours of GW1 deadline. The price decay is fast — 3 consecutive nights of net negative ownership locks in the £0.1m drop and you lose value on the round trip.
The wildcard hedge: if you draft with too many risers (Haaland + Bruno + Saka + Semenyo + Thiago all at minimum price), you have less room to absorb single bad picks. The model recommends 4-5 risers max in your initial XI — the remaining slots go to neutral or projected-flat picks that give you transfer flexibility.
This article refreshes within 6 hours of the 19 June fixtures release and again 24 hours before the GW1 deadline.