The set-piece monopoly question
Set-piece duties account for 18-24% of FPL midfielder and forward bonus points and 10-15% of attacker goals. The set-piece taker is therefore the single highest-leverage role attribution after captaincy — own the set-piece monopolist on a club and you bank the corner-bonus + free-kick-deflection + penalty-conversion EV.
The Onside model tracks three distinct duties: penalties (pens), corners, and direct free-kicks. A "monopoly" means the same player takes all three. Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) is the most-complete monopolist in FPL 26/27 — 98% confidence on pens, 95% on corners, 93% on direct FKs. Owning Bruno = owning 100% of Manchester United's set-piece return distribution.
Other clubs split the duties, and the splits are not where last season's guides put them. Arsenal: Saka takes penalties, but the corners and direct free-kicks are Declan Rice's — Ødegaard is third in the pen order and fourth on both dead-ball lists. Manchester City: Haaland takes pens with Semenyo behind him, and the dead balls belong to Rayan Cherki, with Foden second on direct free-kicks. Kevin De Bruyne is not in FPL 2026/27 at all, so any set-piece map still naming him is a season out of date. The model surfaces the splits across all 20 clubs and rates the confidence % that each role holds through GW10.
The 4 monopolists worth owning
Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United): pens 98% · corners 95% · FKs 93%. The cleanest set-piece monopoly in FPL. Worth +35-45 points/season vs a club with split duties. At £12.0m, the model's highest-EV midfielder pick.
Igor Thiago (Brentford): pens 92% · the lead set-piece taker on a soft-fixture opening run. Thiago at £7m is the model's value bracket pick — set-piece monopoly + captaincy ceiling vs promoted-side openings.
Saka (Arsenal pens, 95%): the cleanest pen monopoly on a top-six side. Arsenal pens are converted at 87% historical rate. At £9.5m, Saka's set-piece edge alone is worth 8-12 points/season above the no-set-piece scenario.
Haaland (Man City pens, 92%): the most-secure pen monopoly at the £15.5m price point. Haaland's set-piece edge compounds with his open-play xG to produce the model's highest captaincy floor in the league.
The 3 set-piece traps to avoid
Liverpool: the trap here has inverted. Szoboszlai (£7.0m) now holds all three duties — first on pens, corners and direct free-kicks — with Isak second on pens, Gakpo third and Wirtz fourth. That is a monopoly, not a fragile inheritance, and it is the reason Szoboszlai sits at 40% ownership. The trap is buying a different Liverpool midfielder and expecting dead-ball returns that go to him.
Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins joined Al Hilal on 1 September, and the pen duty went with him — it is Emiliano Buendía's (£6.0m) now, and he also takes the direct free-kicks. Corners are Matty Cash's, with McGinn second. Villa's set-piece EV is spread across three cheap players, none of whom is a first-XI lock, so until a taker banks a converted penalty it is priced as uncertain.
Newcastle: the axis both guides name is gone — Isak is a Liverpool player and Kieran Trippier is not in FPL 2026/27. Newcastle's penalty order now reads Osula first, and he is out with a foot injury and no return date, so the taker who can actually be picked is Yoane Wissa (£6.2m) at second. Corners and direct free-kicks are Lewis Hall's (£5.1m) — the cheaper and more reliable route into the same routines.
How to use the set-piece map in your draft
Rule 1: never own a club's premium midfielder without owning their set-piece monopolist. If Bruno is your premium-mid pick, you ARE owning the Man United monopolist. If Palmer is your premium-mid pick, you're owning Chelsea's complete set-piece monopoly. If Liverpool's premium-mid (Szoboszlai 70% confidence) is your pick, you're betting on a fragile monopoly that may shift mid-season.
Rule 2: pen-takers + value forwards = the highest-EV value bracket combination. Thiago (Brentford, £8.0m) is first in Brentford's penalty order and ranks top-5 in the model's value-bracket forward output for exactly that reason. Semenyo is no longer the comparison: he moved to Manchester City in the summer and sits second in City's penalty order behind Haaland, which is not a monopoly at all.
Rule 3: track set-piece role shifts post-international break. The first international break in GW4 is when set-piece roles consolidate. A pen taker who loses the role between GW1-3 (rare but happens) usually doesn't get it back — the model re-rates within 24 hours of confirmation. Bookmark this article and refresh after the break.