The set-piece monopoly question
Set-piece duties account for 18-24% of FPL midfielder and forward bonus points and 10-15% of attacker goals. The set-piece taker is therefore the single highest-leverage role attribution after captaincy — own the set-piece monopolist on a club and you bank the corner-bonus + free-kick-deflection + penalty-conversion EV.
The Onside model tracks three distinct duties: penalties (pens), corners, and direct free-kicks. A "monopoly" means the same player takes all three. Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) is the most-complete monopolist in FPL 26/27 — 98% confidence on pens, 95% on corners, 93% on direct FKs. Owning Bruno = owning 100% of Manchester United's set-piece return distribution.
Other clubs split the duties. Arsenal: Saka takes penalties (95% confidence), Ødegaard takes corners + direct FKs (88%/78%). Man City: Haaland takes pens (92%), De Bruyne takes corners + direct FKs (82%/80%). The model surfaces the splits across all 20 clubs and rates the confidence % that each role holds through GW10.
The 4 monopolists worth owning
Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United): pens 98% · corners 95% · FKs 93%. The cleanest set-piece monopoly in FPL. Worth +35-45 points/season vs a club with split duties. At £8.5-9m, the model's highest-EV midfielder pick.
Igor Thiago (Brentford): pens 92% · the lead set-piece taker on a soft-fixture opening run. Thiago at £7m is the model's value bracket pick — set-piece monopoly + captaincy ceiling vs promoted-side openings.
Saka (Arsenal pens, 95%): the cleanest pen monopoly on a top-six side. Arsenal pens are converted at 87% historical rate. At £9.5m, Saka's set-piece edge alone is worth 8-12 points/season above the no-set-piece scenario.
Haaland (Man City pens, 92%): the most-secure pen monopoly at the £14m price point. Haaland's set-piece edge compounds with his open-play xG to produce the model's highest captaincy floor in the league.
The 3 set-piece traps to avoid
Liverpool: Szoboszlai (70% confidence on pens) is the model's lowest-confidence pen taker among top-six sides. Salah's departure removed the established Liverpool pen monopoly; Szoboszlai inherits but the confidence is fragile. Liverpool premium midfielders are a set-piece downgrade vs 25/26.
Aston Villa: Watkins on pens (88%) but the corner taker (Rogers, 70%) and direct FK (McGinn, 65%) are both low-confidence. Owning Watkins captures the pen EV but Villa midfielders below Bruno-tier offer weaker set-piece coverage.
Newcastle: Isak on pens (90%), Trippier on corners + FKs (75%/75%). Trippier's age (35+) introduces minutes uncertainty. The Newcastle set-piece axis is concentrated in two players, one of whom has a real injury risk. Plan around it.
How to use the set-piece map in your draft
Rule 1: never own a club's premium midfielder without owning their set-piece monopolist. If Bruno is your premium-mid pick, you ARE owning the Man United monopolist. If Palmer is your premium-mid pick, you're owning Chelsea's complete set-piece monopoly. If Liverpool's premium-mid (Szoboszlai 70% confidence) is your pick, you're betting on a fragile monopoly that may shift mid-season.
Rule 2: pen-takers + value forwards = the highest-EV value bracket combination. Thiago (Brentford pens 92% + £7m) and Semenyo (Bournemouth pens 78% + £7m) both rank top-5 in the model's value-bracket forward output specifically because they're the pen monopolists.
Rule 3: track set-piece role shifts post-international break. The first international break in GW4 is when set-piece roles consolidate. A pen taker who loses the role between GW1-3 (rare but happens) usually doesn't get it back — the model re-rates within 24 hours of confirmation. Bookmark this article and refresh after the break.