How accurate was the Onside model in the group stage?

Onside's model called 83% of favourites correctly across 72 graded group matches, mean Brier 0.535. Every call is published before kick-off and graded after full time at /world-cup-2026/model-record.

Who is leading the World Cup 2026 golden boot?

Kylian Mbappé (France) leads on 6 goals after the group stage.

GROUP STAGE · THE STORY IN NUMBERS

World Cup 2026 — Group Stage Recap

QUICK ANSWER

How did the World Cup 2026 group stage finish?

The 2026 World Cup group stage produced 215 goals across 72 matches (2.99 per game), with 9 upsets. Kylian Mbappé leads the golden-boot race on 6. Onside's model called 83% of favourites correctly — every prediction graded in public. See every graded call.

Matches played

Goals scored

215

2.99 per game

Upsets

favourite beaten

Model accuracy

83%

graded in public

THE MODEL'S REPORT CARD

How the AI did — graded in public

Favourite accuracy

83%

72 graded matches · Brier 0.535

Biggest correct call

Haiti 0–1 Scotland

Model backed SCO — called it. ✅

Biggest miss (upset)

South Africa 1–0 South Korea

We backed KOR — it didn't happen. ❌ We show the misses too.

GOLDEN BOOT RACE

1Kylian MbappéFRA6
2Lionel MessiARG6
3Erling HaalandNOR5
4Harry KaneENG5
5Ousmane DembéléFRA4
6Ismaïla SarrSEN4

Full golden-boot board →

BIGGEST RESULT

Germany 7–1 Curaçao

A 6-goal margin — the heaviest of the group stage.

FINAL TABLES

All 12 groups — who went through

Group A	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1MexicoQ	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2South AfricaQ	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
3South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
4Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1SwitzerlandQ	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2CanadaQ	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
3Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
4Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1BrazilQ	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2MoroccoQ	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
3Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
4Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1United StatesQ	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2AustraliaQ	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
3Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
4Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1GermanyQ	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2Ivory CoastQ	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
3Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1NetherlandsQ	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2JapanQ	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
3Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
4Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1BelgiumQ	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2EgyptQ	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
3Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
4New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1SpainQ	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2Cape VerdeQ	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
3Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
4Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1FranceQ	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2NorwayQ	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
3Senegal	3	1	2	8	6	+2	3
4Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1ArgentinaQ	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2AustriaQ	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
3Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
4Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1ColombiaQ	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2PortugalQ	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
3DR Congo	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
4Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1EnglandQ	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2CroatiaQ	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
3Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Q = qualified for the Round of 32 (top 2 + best third-placed).

See the knockout bracket →Knockout predictions →The model's receipts →

World Cup 2026 — Group Stage Recap

How did the World Cup 2026 group stage finish?

How the AI did — graded in public

All 12 groups — who went through

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