THIRD-PLACE PLAYOFFMiami Gardens · Hard Rock Stadium

France

ROUTE HERE

bt Sweden 3-1

bt Paraguay 1-0

bt Morocco 2-0

6/6OF THEIR GAMES CALLED

England

ROUTE HERE

bt DR Congo 2-1

bt Mexico 3-2

bt Norway 2-1 (AET)

5/5OF THEIR GAMES CALLED

The third-place play-off — two sides who lost a semi-final, playing for the last podium place.

QUICK ANSWER

France vs England Third-place playoff prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's model gives France a 62% chance of going through in the Third-place playoff between France and England. France 62% · England 38%. Most likely scoreline: France 2-1 England. These are ADVANCEMENT probabilities — a knockout tie cannot end level, so the draw is resolved through extra time and penalties rather than left hanging. Match # 103 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens.

THIRD-PLACE PLAYOFF · MATCH 103

MODEL · FRA 50%MIAMI GARDENS18 Jul UTC

France vs England prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the France vs England Third-place playoff fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

FRANCE

62%

ENGLAND

38%

TO ADVANCE · INCLUDES EXTRA TIME & PENALTIES

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.67 — 1.18

★ MODE

1–1

12.8%

2–1

9.5%

1–0

8.3%

2–0

8.1%

0–0

7.1%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

54%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

FRANCE · PL STARS

1.Lucas DigneAston Villa
2.Malo GustoChelsea
3.Ibrahima KonatéLiverpool

ENGLAND · PL STARS

1.Dean HendersonCrystal Palace
2.Jordan PickfordEverton
3.James TraffordMan City

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

France vs England World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives France 50%, draw 21%, and England 29% in the Third-place playoff — France favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

France vs England score prediction

The model leans France by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

France vs England Third-place playoff — when & where

Third-place playoff fixture at Miami Gardens, kickoff Sat 18 Jul, 21:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (FRA #1 vs ENG #4), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

France vs England line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · France vs England

Who is the favourite to win France vs England Third-place playoff?

France is the model's favourite to advance, at 62%. France 62% · England 38%. These are advancement probabilities: a knockout tie cannot end level, so the draw is resolved through extra time (where the stronger side has the edge) and penalties (which are a coin flip).

When and where is France vs England?

France face England at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, kickoff Saturday 18 July at 21:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for France vs England?

The model's most likely scoreline is France 2-1 England (expected goals 1.7 v 1.2). Note this is the most likely DECISIVE scoreline: a knockout tie cannot end in a draw, so we do not quote one. Knockout football is tighter than the raw expected goals imply — expect a narrow margin, and a real chance of extra time.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

France →England →Pick the score →Full bracket →