Belgium vs IranWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Belgium 57%, draw 23%, and Iran 20%. Belgium is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group G fixture on Sunday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Belgium sits 12 places above Iran in the FIFA ranking (#9 vs #21) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Belgium to 57% and pushes Iran down to 20%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 43% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Senne LammensMan Utd
- Timothy CastagneFulham
- Maxim De CuyperBrighton
- Amadou OnanaAston Villa
- Youri TielemansAston Villa
- Jérémy DokuMan City
- Leandro TrossardArsenal
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