#1 GAP
OUTCOME
Germany to win the World Cup
ONSIDE
4.1%
-3.0pp
MARKET
7.1%
MODEL VS MARKET · UPDATED HOURLY · GRADED AFTER EVERY MATCH
14 marketsPhase 1 · pre-tournamentGrading starts 11 Jun
The Edge Board
Can an open model out-call the prediction market? Onside's 10,000-simulation AI model probabilities vs Polymarket's live market prices for every World Cup 2026 market, ranked by disagreement. Both sides graded publicly after every match — we publish the misses too.
ONSIDE MODEL
Brier 0.000
0 GRADED MATCHES · LIVE 11 JUN
POLYMARKET
Brier 0.000
0 GRADED MATCHES · LIVE 11 JUN
THE ANSWER IN 50 WORDS
The Edge Board compares Onside's 10,000-simulation AI model probabilities with Polymarket's live market prices for every 2026 World Cup market, ranked by how far apart they are. Both sides are scored with a public Brier score after each match — we publish the misses too. Informational comparison, not betting advice.
Prices as of 5 Jun 2026, 08:00 · Source: polymarket.com · Model: onsidearena.com/world-cup-2026/methodology
The 3 biggest gaps right now
RANKED BY ABSOLUTE DIVERGENCE
#2 GAP
OUTCOME
Brazil to win the World Cup
ONSIDE
6.9%
-2.6pp
MARKET
9.5%
#3 GAP
OUTCOME
Mexico to win the World Cup
ONSIDE
4.4%
+2.2pp
MARKET
2.2%
All markets
14 OUTCOMES · MODEL % VS MARKET % · GAP IN PERCENTAGE POINTS
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FAQ
What is the Edge Board?
The Edge Board compares Onside's 10,000-simulation AI model probabilities with Polymarket's live market prices for every 2026 World Cup market, ranked by how far apart they are. Both sides are graded with a public Brier score after each match. It's an experiment, not a boast — we publish the misses too.
How are the model and the market both graded?
Once a match finishes, both probabilities are scored using the multinomial Brier score (lower = sharper). The graded ledger below the live board shows every closed market with both scores side-by-side and a running tally. We publish wins, losses and ties — never hidden.
Is this betting advice?
No. The Edge Board is an informational comparison of two probability sources — our open model and Polymarket's market prices. We do not offer or recommend any wagers, do not link to operators, and do not endorse any market. UK readers in particular should treat this as research, not advice.
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