WILL SPAIN WIN WORLD CUP 2026?
RANK #3 OF 48 BY MODELFIFA #2UEFA

Spain10.4% to win

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Spain a 10.4% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. The model uses FIFA ranking (#2), Premier League squad footprint, host advantage, and UEFA confederation strength as inputs.

Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.

SPAIN'S TOURNAMENT PATH
R16
73%
QF
49%
SF
31%
FINAL
18.4%
CHAMPION
10.4%
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← Full winner boardSpain team page →How the model works →
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