Will Spain win the World Cup 2026?
Spain — 58.8% to win
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Spain a 58.8% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates Spain(FIFA #2, UEFA) against every other contender.
Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.
FAQ · Spain at World Cup 2026
Will Spain win the World Cup 2026?
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Spain a 58.8% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #1 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.
How far will Spain go at the World Cup 2026?
Spain reaches the Round of 16 89% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 40%, and the final 26.6%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates Spain (FIFA #2, UEFA) against the rest of the field.
What is Spain's rank in the Onside model?
Spain sits #1 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model.
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