WILL ENGLAND WIN WORLD CUP 2026?
RANK #2 OF 48 BY MODELFIFA #4UEFA

England11.2% to win

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives England a 11.2% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. The model uses FIFA ranking (#4), Premier League squad footprint, host advantage, and UEFA confederation strength as inputs.

Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.

ENGLAND'S TOURNAMENT PATH
R16
72%
QF
49%
SF
32%
FINAL
19.4%
CHAMPION
11.2%
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← Full winner boardEngland team page →How the model works →
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