WILL GERMANY WIN WORLD CUP 2026?
RANK #10 OF 48 BY MODELFIFA #10UEFA

Germany3.8% to win

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Germany a 3.8% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. The model uses FIFA ranking (#10), Premier League squad footprint, host advantage, and UEFA confederation strength as inputs.

Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.

GERMANY'S TOURNAMENT PATH
R16
61%
QF
35%
SF
19%
FINAL
9.0%
CHAMPION
3.8%
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← Full winner boardGermany team page →How the model works →
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