QUICK ANSWER

Will United States win the World Cup 2026?

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives United States a 0.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — currently ranked #10 of 48 by champion probability. The team reaches the Round of 16 in 88% of simulations, the semi-finals in 15%, and the final in 5.9%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model (rating United States at FIFA #16, CONCACAF, with host-nation advantage). Probabilities refresh hourly as group-stage results land.

WILL UNITED STATES WIN WORLD CUP 2026?

RANK #10 OF 48 BY MODELFIFA #16CONCACAF

United States — 0.0% to win

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives United States a 0.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. Onside's calibrated team-strength model rates United States(FIFA #16, CONCACAF), with host-nation advantage, against every other contender.

Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.

UNITED STATES'S TOURNAMENT PATH

R16

88%

33%

15%

FINAL

5.9%

CHAMPION

0.0%

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FAQ · United States at World Cup 2026

Will United States win the World Cup 2026?

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives United States a 0.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026 — ranked #10 of 48 by champion probability. The model re-runs hourly as group-stage results land.

How far will United States go at the World Cup 2026?

United States reaches the Round of 16 88% of the time in simulation, the semi-finals 15%, and the final 5.9%. These probabilities come from Onside's calibrated team-strength model, which rates United States (FIFA #16, CONCACAF) with host-nation advantage against the rest of the field.

What is United States's rank in the Onside model?

United States sits #10 of 48 by Onside model champion probability — based on Onside's calibrated team-strength model, including host-nation advantage.

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