United States — 4.0% to win
Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives United States a 4.0% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. The model uses FIFA ranking (#16), Premier League squad footprint, host advantage (host nation — +0.30 rating), and CONCACAF confederation strength as inputs.
Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.
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