WILL PORTUGAL WIN WORLD CUP 2026?
RANK #5 OF 48 BY MODELFIFA #5UEFA

Portugal8.1% to win

Onside's 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulator gives Portugal a 8.1% probability of winning the FIFA World Cup 2026. The model uses FIFA ranking (#5), Premier League squad footprint, host advantage, and UEFA confederation strength as inputs.

Probability updates hourly as group-stage results land. Share this card to X / Reddit / WhatsApp below.

PORTUGAL'S TOURNAMENT PATH
R16
69%
QF
45%
SF
26%
FINAL
14.6%
CHAMPION
8.1%
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← Full winner boardPortugal team page →How the model works →
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