MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP C · MD1

Brazil vs MoroccoWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 13 June 2026 · 22:00 UTC · East Rutherford

Onside's AI model gives Brazil 44%, draw 26%, and Morocco 30%. Brazil is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group C fixture on Saturday.

BRAZIL WIN
44%
DRAW
26%
MOROCCO WIN
30%
Brazil44%
Draw 26%
30%Morocco
SHAREXRedditWhatsApp
FAV BRA · NARROW CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Confederation pedigree decides

Brazil (CONMEBOL) holds a confederation-strength edge over Morocco (CAF) — historically the gap between UEFA/CONMEBOL pedigree and the rest has been the most reliable knockout signal. With FIFA ranks within 2 places, that confederation weight pushes Brazil to 44% and leaves Morocco on 30%.

WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS

The four signals, side-by-side

FIFA RANKING
Brazil
#6
Morocco
#8
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Brazil
8
Morocco
4
HOST EDGE
Brazil
Morocco
CONFEDERATION
Brazil
CONMEBOL
Morocco
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Brazil8 PL
  • Alisson BeckerLiverpool
  • Gabriel MagalhãesArsenal
  • Bruno GuimarãesNewcastle
  • CasemiroMan Utd
  • Matheus CunhaMan Utd
  • Igor ThiagoBrentford
  • Gabriel MartinelliArsenal
  • RayanBournemouth
Morocco4 PL
  • Noussair MazraouiMan Utd
  • Chadi RiadCrystal Palace
  • Issa DiopWest Ham
  • Chemsdine TalbiSunderland
Brazil full team page →Morocco full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
WC MATCHDAY BRIEF · ONE LIST, TWO SEASONS

Get the World Cup brief in your inbox — plus early FPL 2026/27 picks

Match-by-match predictions, captain picks for World Cup Fantasy, likely scorers, and the first FPL 2026/27 differentials to watch. Same engine that powers our Premier League tools, pointed at the world's biggest pre-season.

Weekly digest

Captain picks, transfer tips & differentials — every week.

One email per gameweek. Unsubscribe any time.

SAME ENGINE · POINTED AT FPL

Tracking the World Cup? Use the same engine for FPL 2026/27.

v5 depth-2 GBT stacker · 51k+ OOS predictions · MAE 1.92. Captain picks, MILP squad optimiser, AI Coach, set-piece intel — the production Premier League tools.