Colombia vs PortugalWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Colombia 28%, draw 25%, and Portugal 47%. Portugal is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group K fixture on Saturday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Portugal sits 8 places above Colombia in the FIFA ranking (#5 vs #13) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Portugal to 47% and pushes Colombia down to 28%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 53% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Daniel MuñozCrystal Palace
- Jefferson LermaCrystal Palace
- José SáWolves
- Diogo DalotMan Utd
- Matheus NunesMan City
- Rúben DiasMan City
- Bruno FernandesMan Utd
- Bernardo SilvaMan City
- Pedro NetoChelsea
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