Ecuador vs GermanyWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Ecuador 23%, draw 25%, and Germany 52%. Germany is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group E fixture on Thursday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Germany sits 13 places above Ecuador in the FIFA ranking (#10 vs #23) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Germany to 52% and pushes Ecuador down to 23%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 48% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Moisés CaicedoChelsea
- Malick ThiawNewcastle
- Pascal GroßBrighton
- Florian WirtzLiverpool
- Kai HavertzArsenal
- Nick WoltemadeNewcastle
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