England vs CroatiaWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives England 47%, draw 26%, and Croatia 27%. England is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group L fixture on Wednesday.
Premier League footprint matters
England brings 21 Premier League regulars to the squad vs 3 for Croatia — the model treats that as a fitness/quality proxy that tightens the gap when FIFA ranks are similar. Output: England 47% to Croatia's 27%.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Dean HendersonCrystal Palace
- Jordan PickfordEverton
- James TraffordMan City
- Dan BurnNewcastle
- Marc GuéhiCrystal Palace
- Reece JamesChelsea
- Ezri KonsaAston Villa
- Tino LivramentoNewcastle
- + 13 more
- Joško GvardiolMan City
- Luka VuškovićSpurs
- Mateo KovačićMan City
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