France vs SenegalWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives France 56%, draw 23%, and Senegal 21%. France is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group I fixture on Tuesday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
France sits 13 places above Senegal in the FIFA ranking (#1 vs #14) — the model's dominant input. That lifts France to 56% and pushes Senegal down to 21%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 44% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Lucas DigneAston Villa
- Malo GustoChelsea
- Ibrahima KonatéLiverpool
- Maxence LacroixCrystal Palace
- William SalibaArsenal
- Rayan CherkiMan City
- Jean-Philippe MatetaCrystal Palace
- Mamadou SarrChelsea
- El-Hadji Malick DioufWest Ham
- Idrissa GueyeEverton
- Habib DiarraSunderland
- Pape Matar SarrSpurs
- Iliman NdiayeEverton
- Nicolas JacksonChelsea
- Ismaïla SarrCrystal Palace
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