Japan vs SwedenWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Japan 53%, draw 24%, and Sweden 23%. Japan is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Thursday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Japan sits 20 places above Sweden in the FIFA ranking (#18 vs #38) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Japan to 53% and pushes Sweden down to 23%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 47% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Wataru EndoLiverpool
- Daichi KamadaCrystal Palace
- Ao TanakaLeeds
- Takehiro TomiyasuArsenal
- Alexander IsakLiverpool
- Viktor GyökeresArsenal
- Anthony ElangaNewcastle
- Lucas BergvallSpurs
- Yasin AyariBrighton
- Victor LindelöfAston Villa
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