Mexico vs South KoreaWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Mexico 60%, draw 22%, and South Korea 18%. Mexico is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group A fixture on Friday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Mexico sits 10 places above South Korea in the FIFA ranking (#15 vs #25) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Mexico to 60% and pushes South Korea down to 18%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 40% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Raúl JiménezFulham
- Hwang Hee-chanWolves
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