Netherlands vs JapanWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Netherlands 57%, draw 23%, and Japan 20%. Netherlands is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Sunday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Netherlands sits 11 places above Japan in the FIFA ranking (#7 vs #18) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Netherlands to 57% and pushes Japan down to 20%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 43% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Mark FlekkenBrentford
- Robin RoefsSunderland
- Bart VerbruggenBrighton
- Nathan AkéMan City
- Virgil van DijkLiverpool
- Jorrel HatoChelsea
- Jan Paul van HeckeBrighton
- Micky van de VenSpurs
- + 9 more
- Wataru EndoLiverpool
- Daichi KamadaCrystal Palace
- Ao TanakaLeeds
- Takehiro TomiyasuArsenal
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