Netherlands vs SwedenWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Netherlands 72%, draw 16%, and Sweden 12%. Netherlands is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Saturday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Netherlands sits 31 places above Sweden in the FIFA ranking (#7 vs #38) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Netherlands to 72% and pushes Sweden down to 12%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Netherlands as a strong favourite.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Mark FlekkenBrentford
- Robin RoefsSunderland
- Bart VerbruggenBrighton
- Nathan AkéMan City
- Virgil van DijkLiverpool
- Jorrel HatoChelsea
- Jan Paul van HeckeBrighton
- Micky van de VenSpurs
- + 9 more
- Alexander IsakLiverpool
- Viktor GyökeresArsenal
- Anthony ElangaNewcastle
- Lucas BergvallSpurs
- Yasin AyariBrighton
- Victor LindelöfAston Villa
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