MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP F · MD2

Netherlands vs SwedenWin Probability & Model Prediction

Saturday, 20 June 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Houston

Onside's AI model gives Netherlands 72%, draw 16%, and Sweden 12%. Netherlands is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Saturday.

NETHERLANDS WIN
72%
DRAW
16%
SWEDEN WIN
12%
Netherlands72%
Draw 16%
12%Sweden
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FAV NED · STRONG CONFIDENCE
MODEL RATIONALE

FIFA rank gap drives the model

Netherlands sits 31 places above Sweden in the FIFA ranking (#7 vs #38) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Netherlands to 72% and pushes Sweden down to 12%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Netherlands as a strong favourite.

WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS

The four signals, side-by-side

FIFA RANKING
Netherlands
#7
Sweden
#38
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Netherlands
17
Sweden
6
HOST EDGE
Netherlands
Sweden
CONFEDERATION
Netherlands
UEFA
Sweden
UEFA
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Netherlands17 PL
  • Mark FlekkenBrentford
  • Robin RoefsSunderland
  • Bart VerbruggenBrighton
  • Nathan AkéMan City
  • Virgil van DijkLiverpool
  • Jorrel HatoChelsea
  • Jan Paul van HeckeBrighton
  • Micky van de VenSpurs
  • + 9 more
Sweden6 PL
  • Alexander IsakLiverpool
  • Viktor GyökeresArsenal
  • Anthony ElangaNewcastle
  • Lucas BergvallSpurs
  • Yasin AyariBrighton
  • Victor LindelöfAston Villa
Netherlands full team page →Sweden full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
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