Paraguay vs AustraliaWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Paraguay 28%, draw 26%, and Australia 46%. Australia is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Friday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Australia sits 13 places above Paraguay in the FIFA ranking (#27 vs #40) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Australia to 46% and pushes Paraguay down to 28%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 54% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Diego GómezBrighton
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