Senegal vs IraqWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Senegal 82%, draw 11%, and Iraq 7%. Senegal is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group I fixture on Friday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Senegal sits 43 places above Iraq in the FIFA ranking (#14 vs #57) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Senegal to 82% and pushes Iraq down to 7%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats Senegal as a strong favourite.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Mamadou SarrChelsea
- El-Hadji Malick DioufWest Ham
- Idrissa GueyeEverton
- Habib DiarraSunderland
- Pape Matar SarrSpurs
- Iliman NdiayeEverton
- Nicolas JacksonChelsea
- Ismaïla SarrCrystal Palace
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