MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP F · MD1

Sweden vs TunisiaWin Probability & Model Prediction

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Guadalupe

Onside's AI model gives Sweden 49%, draw 25%, and Tunisia 26%. Sweden is the model favourite (narrow confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Monday.

SWEDEN WIN
49%
DRAW
25%
TUNISIA WIN
26%
Sweden49%
Draw 25%
26%Tunisia
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FAV SWE · NARROW CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Confederation pedigree decides

Sweden (UEFA) holds a confederation-strength edge over Tunisia (CAF) — historically the gap between UEFA/CONMEBOL pedigree and the rest has been the most reliable knockout signal. With FIFA ranks within 6 places, that confederation weight pushes Sweden to 49% and leaves Tunisia on 26%.

WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS

The four signals, side-by-side

FIFA RANKING
Sweden
#38
Tunisia
#44
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Sweden
6
Tunisia
1
HOST EDGE
Sweden
Tunisia
CONFEDERATION
Sweden
UEFA
Tunisia
CAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Sweden6 PL
  • Alexander IsakLiverpool
  • Viktor GyökeresArsenal
  • Anthony ElangaNewcastle
  • Lucas BergvallSpurs
  • Yasin AyariBrighton
  • Victor LindelöfAston Villa
Tunisia1 PL
  • Hannibal MejbriBurnley
Sweden full team page →Tunisia full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
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