Tunisia vs JapanWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Tunisia 15%, draw 20%, and Japan 65%. Japan is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Sunday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
Japan sits 26 places above Tunisia in the FIFA ranking (#18 vs #44) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Japan to 65% and pushes Tunisia down to 15%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 35% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Hannibal MejbriBurnley
- Wataru EndoLiverpool
- Daichi KamadaCrystal Palace
- Ao TanakaLeeds
- Takehiro TomiyasuArsenal
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