MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP F · MD2

Tunisia vs JapanWin Probability & Model Prediction

Sunday, 21 June 2026 · 04:00 UTC · Guadalupe

Onside's AI model gives Tunisia 15%, draw 20%, and Japan 65%. Japan is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group F fixture on Sunday.

TUNISIA WIN
15%
DRAW
20%
JAPAN WIN
65%
Tunisia15%
Draw 20%
65%Japan
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FAV JPN · STRONG CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

FIFA rank gap drives the model

Japan sits 26 places above Tunisia in the FIFA ranking (#18 vs #44) — the model's dominant input. That lifts Japan to 65% and pushes Tunisia down to 15%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 35% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.

WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS

The four signals, side-by-side

FIFA RANKING
Tunisia
#44
Japan
#18
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Tunisia
1
Japan
4
HOST EDGE
Tunisia
Japan
CONFEDERATION
Tunisia
CAF
Japan
AFC
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Tunisia1 PL
  • Hannibal MejbriBurnley
Japan4 PL
  • Wataru EndoLiverpool
  • Daichi KamadaCrystal Palace
  • Ao TanakaLeeds
  • Takehiro TomiyasuArsenal
Tunisia full team page →Japan full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
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