MODEL PREDICTION · GROUP D · MD3

Türkiye vs United StatesWin Probability & Model Prediction

Friday, 26 June 2026 · 02:00 UTC · Inglewood

Onside's AI model gives Türkiye 25%, draw 25%, and United States 50%. United States is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Friday.

TÜRKIYE WIN
25%
DRAW
25%
UNITED STATES WIN
50%
Türkiye25%
Draw 25%
50%United States
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FAV USA · MODERATE CONFIDENCEUPSET WATCH
MODEL RATIONALE

Host advantage tips it

Ranks are close (#16 vs #22), but United States plays on home soil — the model awards a host edge worth roughly three percentage points pre-tournament. United States comes out 50% vs 25% for Türkiye, with 25% on the draw.

WHY THE MODEL THINKS THIS

The four signals, side-by-side

FIFA RANKING
Türkiye
#22
United States
#16
PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS
Türkiye
1
United States
4
HOST EDGE
Türkiye
United States
YES
CONFEDERATION
Türkiye
UEFA
United States
CONCACAF
PREMIER LEAGUE THREAD

The PL names in each squad

Türkiye1 PL
  • Altay BayındırMan Utd
United States4 PL
  • Chris RichardsCrystal Palace
  • Antonee RobinsonFulham
  • Tyler AdamsBournemouth
  • Brenden AaronsonLeeds
Türkiye full team page →United States full team page →Compare radar →All predictions →
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