United States vs AustraliaWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives United States 62%, draw 21%, and Australia 17%. United States is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Friday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
United States sits 11 places above Australia in the FIFA ranking (#16 vs #27) — the model's dominant input. That lifts United States to 62% and pushes Australia down to 17%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Underdog still has 38% combined chance of an upset or draw — flagged as Upset Watch.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Chris RichardsCrystal Palace
- Antonee RobinsonFulham
- Tyler AdamsBournemouth
- Brenden AaronsonLeeds
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