United States vs ParaguayWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives United States 70%, draw 17%, and Paraguay 13%. United States is the model favourite (strong confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group D fixture on Saturday.
FIFA rank gap drives the model
United States sits 24 places above Paraguay in the FIFA ranking (#16 vs #40) — the model's dominant input. That lifts United States to 70% and pushes Paraguay down to 13%, with the draw absorbing the rest. Model treats United States as a strong favourite.
The four signals, side-by-side
The PL names in each squad
- Chris RichardsCrystal Palace
- Antonee RobinsonFulham
- Tyler AdamsBournemouth
- Brenden AaronsonLeeds
- Diego GómezBrighton
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