How the rankings are scored
The Onside model's 26/27 power rankings combine 4 weighted metrics on a 0-100 scale:
1. TEMPLATE — projected top-1k template-share. How many FPL managers are projected to own at least one player from this club. Drives FPL exposure decisions.
2. xG FOR — projected xG per game. Drives captaincy + attacking returns. Manchester City leads at 95/100, Arsenal 88, Liverpool 88.
3. xGA INVERTED — projected xG-against per game. Inverted so higher = better defence. Arsenal leads at 90/100, Liverpool 82, Manchester City 78.
4. FDR INVERTED — opening 10-GW fixture difficulty. Inverted so higher = easier opening run. Newcastle leads at 88/100, Bournemouth 82, Brentford 80.
The four metrics are weighted equally to produce the overall ranking. Movement arrows (▲ ▼ ·) show direction since the 25/26 finish.
The top 3 — the title contenders
No.1 · Arsenal (climber). Champion of 25/26. Three template anchors (Gabriel + Timber + Saka). Top-half FDR opener. The model rates Arsenal as the most-template-relevant club for 26/27. Own at least 2 of the 3 Arsenal anchors or accept significant rank risk.
No.2 · Manchester City. Haaland captain monopoly + structural top xG/G. The system reshuffle under Maresca's succession is the only marginal risk. Single-Man-City exposure (Haaland) is the model recommendation; double up only if a budget defender (Akanji or Ortega) emerges as a Tier-2 pick.
No.3 · Liverpool (dropper). Post-Salah + post-TAA. The 25/26 title-runner spot won't survive. Single-Liverpool exposure (van Dijk + the Salah replacement winger) only. Iraola's pressing system unlocks defensive xGA but the attack is in transition.
The challenger tier (4-7)
No.4 · Manchester United (climber). Bruno + the post-Højlund striker. Carrick's system + Quenda + Emegha signings reshape the attacking depth. Bruno at £8.5m is the model's highest BPS midfielder.
No.5 · Newcastle (climber). NO European football = the structural FDR advantage. Isak at £9.0m is the model's strongest differential captaincy bet. The lightest fixture load of any top-half club.
No.6 · Chelsea (flat). Alonso bounce uncertain. 10/1 fourth-favourites at the bookmaker but FPL prices reflect 25/26 collapse. Wait for pre-season minutes before drafting Palmer.
No.7 · Tottenham (flat). De Zerbi 4-2-3-1 + Porro premium fullback. Maddison + Son rate Tier-2 because of Spurs' attacking variance.
The value bracket (8-10)
No.8 · Aston Villa. Watkins + Rogers double-up. Emery's system + soft Villa opening run = the model's recommended £9m + £6.5m forward + mid combo.
No.9 · Bournemouth (climber). Iraola's system fingerprint at Liverpool comes from his Bournemouth blueprint. Semenyo at £7.0m is the Tier-2 forward bracket dominant value pick.
No.10 · Brentford (climber). Mbeumo + Thiago double-up. Thiago at 22 PL goals in 25/26 + £7m entry price = the model's biggest budget forward edge.
Below No.10 sits the mid-table cluster (Crystal Palace, Brighton, Forest, Fulham, Wolves) — single-pick exposure territory. Below those: West Ham, Everton, promoted-side trio (Sunderland, Burnley, Leeds). Bench fillers + budget enablers only.