How to read the FDR heatmap
The Onside FDR heatmap (above) plots every Premier League side's opening 10 gameweeks across a single colour scale. Acid green = an easy opener (FDR 1-2). Neon cyan = neutral (FDR 3). Neon magenta = hard (FDR 4). Red = brutal (FDR 5).
The right-hand "AVG" column shows the average FDR over the 10-gameweek window, sorted ascending. Newcastle (no European football) leads the easiest-opening-10 with a 2.5 average. Sunderland's post-promotion sequence sits at the bottom at 4.3.
What the FDR captures: opponent xG-against, recent form weighted, manager transition uncertainty, fixture congestion (Europe vs no-Europe), and pre-season minutes signal. What it doesn't capture: individual matchup factors like set-piece monopoly, manager-of-the-month dynamics, or your captain choice — those layer on top of FDR, they don't replace it.
The 4 clubs to load up on (easiest opening 10)
Newcastle (avg FDR 2.5). NO European football in 26/27. The lightest top-half fixture load of any side. That fixture run is real, but the names have changed: Isak is at Liverpool, Bruno Guimarães at Arsenal, Anthony Gordon has left the league and Joelinton is injured with no return date. Newcastle defenders + Pope at £4.5m are the model's highest-EV pre-season picks.
Brentford (avg FDR 2.6). Iraola-style Frank tactics + the Mbeumo/Thiago set-piece axis. Thiago (£7-7.5m, 22 PL goals in 25/26) is the dictator pick in the cheap-forward bracket on this opening run.
Bournemouth (avg FDR 2.7). Iraola's home/away xG split is the model's widest in 25/26 (1.78 home vs 0.92 away). Semenyo at home in the opening 6 is a +3.2 xCaptain/90 fixture vs his away expectation.
Aston Villa (avg FDR 2.9). the soft run plays through GW7 — three home games against bottom-half opposition between GW1-7. With the striker slot rebuilt in the window, the model's preferred route into it is Emery's defence.
The 3 clubs to fade (brutal opening 10)
Sunderland (avg FDR 4.3). Post-promotion, no Premier League experience in the spine of the squad. Opens against Newcastle (away), Brentford (home), Everton (away), and Liverpool (home). Sunderland defenders + GK are the cheapest possible bench fillers, NOT first-XI picks.
Burnley (avg FDR 4.2). Compton-Watkins promoted side with a Premier League-grade central defence but no Premier League-grade attack. Opens against Brentford (away), West Ham (home), Bournemouth (away), Chelsea (home). Avoid premium Burnley assets until fixture swing in GW10+.
Leeds (avg FDR 4.0). The model's most-confident-fade. Opens against Brighton (away), Brentford (home), Crystal Palace (away), Man City (home), Tottenham (away), Arsenal (home). The 6-fixture average FDR of 4.2 is the worst opener of any non-promoted side.
How FDR shifts your wildcard timing
FDR maps directly onto wildcard EV. A 5-club fixture-swing window (3+ clubs flipping easy-to-hard or hard-to-easy) lands GW8-12 in the model's baseline projection. That's the Wildcard 1 GW5-6 firing window — you wildcard INTO the fixture swing, not after it.
If you ride the easy-opening-10 clubs (Newcastle, Brentford, Bournemouth, Villa) with 5-6 of your starting XI, your Wildcard 1 fires in GW6 with the most clarity. If you draft against the model and own 3+ of the hard-opening-10 clubs (Sunderland, Burnley, Leeds), the wildcard pressure forces a GW3-4 firing — costing you 8-12 EV points/season vs the optimal.
Plan your draft around the heatmap. The fixture data does most of the work.