FPL · TIPS · 2026-27
Pre-season 26/27 outlook · Onside model
FPL · TIPS · 2026-27

FPL Chip Strategy 26/27

The complete Onside model chip strategy for FPL 26/27. Wildcard 1 at GW4 (+47 EV peak), Free Hit at GW18 Christmas DGW, Triple Captain at GW22 (Haaland home), Bench Boost at GW27 DGW28-29, Wildcard 2 at GW28, Free Hit 2 at GW34.

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FPL Chip Strategy 26/27

The complete Onside model chip strategy for FPL 26/27. Wildcard 1 at GW4 (+47 EV peak), Free Hit at GW18 Christmas DGW, Triple Captain at GW22 (Haaland home), Bench Boost at GW27 DGW28-29, Wildcard 2 at GW28, Free Hit 2 at GW34.
Updated 21 hours ago
25/26 HEADLINE STATS · 26/27 IMPLICATIONS
239
HAALAND 25/26 PTS
Golden Boot · 27 goals
21
BRUNO PL ASSISTS
★ Premier League record
+47
GW4 WILDCARD EV PEAK
Onside model · 70% of seasons
4
NEW PL MANAGERS · 26/27
Alonso · De Zerbi · Iraola · Maresca
FPL · CHIPS · 26/27

FPL Chip Strategy 26/27

The model's 6-chip placement: WC1 GW4, FH1 GW18, TC GW22, BB GW27, WC2 GW28, FH2 GW34. Total expected uplift vs no-chips: +180 to +220 points.

CHIP EV / SEASON
+200
ONSIDE MODEL · WILDCARD 1 EV CURVE
Expected value per firing window vs no-WC1 baseline
PEAK
+47 · GW4
0+10+20+30+40+47-3GW1GW2GW3+47GW4★ PEAKGW5GW6+37GW7GW8GW9+25GW10GW11+14GW12EV (POINTS / SEASON)
Peak EV (+47)
High-EV window (GW3-9, >+30)
Negative EV (GW1 only)
Source: Onside model
ONSIDE MODEL · CHIP STRATEGY · 26/27
Season chip placement timeline · GW1 → GW38
CHIPS
6 plays · 38 GWs
GW1GW5GW10GW15GW19GW22GW26GW30GW34GW38WC1 · GW4Wildcard 1FH1 · GW18Free Hit 1TC · GW22Triple CapBB · GW27Bench BoostWC2 · GW28Wildcard 2FH2 · GW34Free Hit 2FIRST HALFSECOND HALF
WC1 GW4 Post-international-break · +47 EV peak
FH1 GW18 Christmas DGW · 2x captain return
TC GW22 Haaland home vs bottom-half
BB GW27 DGW28-29 wider squad activation
WC2 GW28 Second-half template reset
FH2 GW34 GW35 blank-gameweek cover

The 6-chip season plan

FPL 26/27 gives you 6 chip plays across the 38-gameweek season: Wildcard 1, Free Hit 1, Triple Captain, Bench Boost, Wildcard 2, Free Hit 2. The Onside model's optimal placement spreads these chips to capture the highest-EV firing windows: GW4, GW18, GW22, GW27, GW28, GW34.

Each chip targets a distinct strategic moment in the season: - Wildcard 1 (GW4): post-international-break structural reset, +47 EV peak - Free Hit 1 (GW18): Christmas DGW double-captain return - Triple Captain (GW22): Haaland's projected best home fixture - Bench Boost (GW27): DGW28-29 wider-squad activation - Wildcard 2 (GW28): second-half template reset - Free Hit 2 (GW34): GW35 blank-gameweek cover

Total expected uplift vs no-chips baseline: +180 to +220 points across the season.

Wildcard windows — the EV curve

The wildcard is the single highest-leverage chip in FPL, worth +47 points at the peak firing window (GW4) vs negative-EV if used in GW1. The EV curve above shows the full picture: a steep climb from GW1-4, a gentle decay through GW6, then a sharp decline.

GW4 is the model's preferred Wildcard 1 firing window in 70%+ of seasons. The remaining 30% favours either GW5 (fixture-swing capture) or GW6 (extra clarity on premium-mid). After GW6 the EV drops fast — GW10 retains only 53% of the GW4 value.

Wildcard 2 fires in the GW20-29 window. The model's preferred slot is GW28 — late enough to read the second-half fixture map, early enough to capture the run-in differential window. Earlier than GW20 wastes chip value; later than GW29 leaves too few gameweeks to capitalise.

Free Hit + Triple Captain placement

Free Hit 1 (GW18): The Christmas double-gameweek is the model's historical Free Hit peak. With 2 fixtures per team and rotation risk on the Boxing Day kickoffs, Free Hit lets you build a one-week 11 that maximises both fixture coverage AND captain ceiling.

Triple Captain (GW22): The model targets Haaland's projected best home fixture for TC. Historical pattern: a home fixture against a bottom-6 side in the post-Christmas window has produced 18+ captain hauls in 4 of 5 recent seasons. TC turns those into 36+ captain returns.

Free Hit 2 (GW34): The GW35 blank-gameweek (FA Cup interference) typically removes 4-6 teams from the lineup. Free Hit at GW34 lets you build an 11 that bypasses the blank entirely while everyone else rotates injuries and reshuffles.

The TC + FH1 + FH2 sequence is the model's "captain protection" trio — chip-spend designed to capture peak captaincy returns AND survive the season's two biggest fixture disruptions.

Bench Boost — the deep-squad chip

Bench Boost is the model's most-misunderstood chip. The mistake: firing it on any random DGW without preparing the bench. The right framing: BB is the reward for spending 3-4 weeks building a deep 15-man squad.

The model's GW27 Bench Boost target: DGW28-29 (FA Cup replays cluster + early-March double). Two key conditions:

1. The 4 bench players (1 GK + 3 outfielders) must average ≥6 PPG over the preceding 4 GWs. Random bench fillers waste BB.

2. The bench must have 2 fixtures across the DGW window. Single-game bench players don't justify the chip.

Wildcard 2 at GW28 is the bench-prep window: use WC2 to ensure your full 15 has the right fixture coverage for the upcoming DGW. Then BB at GW27 captures the wider activation.

Combined value of WC2 + BB in the GW27-29 cluster: +60 to +75 points vs no-chips baseline.

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Frequently Asked Questions

The Onside model places the 6 chips at: Wildcard 1 GW4 (+47 EV peak), Free Hit 1 GW18 Christmas DGW, Triple Captain GW22 Haaland home, Bench Boost GW27 DGW activation, Wildcard 2 GW28 bench prep + second-half reset, Free Hit 2 GW34 GW35 blank cover. Total expected uplift: +180 to +220 points.