The 6-chip season plan
FPL 26/27 gives you 6 chip plays across the 38-gameweek season: Wildcard 1, Free Hit 1, Triple Captain, Bench Boost, Wildcard 2, Free Hit 2. The Onside model's optimal placement spreads these chips to capture the highest-EV firing windows: GW4, GW18, GW22, GW27, GW28, GW34.
Each chip targets a distinct strategic moment in the season: - Wildcard 1 (GW4): post-international-break structural reset, +47 EV peak - Free Hit 1 (GW18): Christmas DGW double-captain return - Triple Captain (GW22): Haaland's projected best home fixture - Bench Boost (GW27): DGW28-29 wider-squad activation - Wildcard 2 (GW28): second-half template reset - Free Hit 2 (GW34): GW35 blank-gameweek cover
Total expected uplift vs no-chips baseline: +180 to +220 points across the season.
Wildcard windows — the EV curve
The wildcard is the single highest-leverage chip in FPL, worth +47 points at the peak firing window (GW4) vs negative-EV if used in GW1. The EV curve above shows the full picture: a steep climb from GW1-4, a gentle decay through GW6, then a sharp decline.
GW4 is the model's preferred Wildcard 1 firing window in 70%+ of seasons. The remaining 30% favours either GW5 (fixture-swing capture) or GW6 (extra clarity on premium-mid). After GW6 the EV drops fast — GW10 retains only 53% of the GW4 value.
Wildcard 2 fires in the GW20-29 window. The model's preferred slot is GW28 — late enough to read the second-half fixture map, early enough to capture the run-in differential window. Earlier than GW20 wastes chip value; later than GW29 leaves too few gameweeks to capitalise.
Free Hit + Triple Captain placement
Free Hit 1 (GW18): The Christmas double-gameweek is the model's historical Free Hit peak. With 2 fixtures per team and rotation risk on the Boxing Day kickoffs, Free Hit lets you build a one-week 11 that maximises both fixture coverage AND captain ceiling.
Triple Captain (GW22): The model targets Haaland's projected best home fixture for TC. Historical pattern: a home fixture against a bottom-6 side in the post-Christmas window has produced 18+ captain hauls in 4 of 5 recent seasons. TC turns those into 36+ captain returns.
Free Hit 2 (GW34): The GW35 blank-gameweek (FA Cup interference) typically removes 4-6 teams from the lineup. Free Hit at GW34 lets you build an 11 that bypasses the blank entirely while everyone else rotates injuries and reshuffles.
The TC + FH1 + FH2 sequence is the model's "captain protection" trio — chip-spend designed to capture peak captaincy returns AND survive the season's two biggest fixture disruptions.
Bench Boost — the deep-squad chip
Bench Boost is the model's most-misunderstood chip. The mistake: firing it on any random DGW without preparing the bench. The right framing: BB is the reward for spending 3-4 weeks building a deep 15-man squad.
The model's GW27 Bench Boost target: DGW28-29 (FA Cup replays cluster + early-March double). Two key conditions:
1. The 4 bench players (1 GK + 3 outfielders) must average ≥6 PPG over the preceding 4 GWs. Random bench fillers waste BB.
2. The bench must have 2 fixtures across the DGW window. Single-game bench players don't justify the chip.
Wildcard 2 at GW28 is the bench-prep window: use WC2 to ensure your full 15 has the right fixture coverage for the upcoming DGW. Then BB at GW27 captures the wider activation.
Combined value of WC2 + BB in the GW27-29 cluster: +60 to +75 points vs no-chips baseline.