WC
FPL · WILDCARD · 2026-27
Pre-season 26/27 outlook · Onside model

CHIP WEEK · WILDCARD 1 · GW4 · 26/27

This is the week
the wildcard was made for.

The record transfer window shut after your squad was drafted. GW4 is the first deadline that can price all of it in — and the model’s highest-EV firing window of the season.

87departed players still priced6squads structurally rebuilt№1most-used WC1 slot in FPL history
+47
pts/season EV
vs no-wildcard
SAT 13:30
GW4 deadline · 12 Sep · UK
01THE CASE

Why GW4 is the season's optimised window

+47 pts
the season EV of a GW4 wildcard

The model’s historical per-season gain of firing Wildcard 1 at GW4 versus never firing it — its preferred window in 70%+ of seasons.

87 players
left the league, still priced

Deadline-day departures who can never score again. Two or more in your 15 and the wildcard beats digging them out at −4 a time.

2–3 GWs
until the mispricing closes

Six squads were rebuilt and the price list hasn’t caught up. GW3 put real minutes on the new signings — evidence, not guesswork, and it decays weekly.

Wildcard 1 EV by firing window · pts/season vs no-WC1 baseline
+47
GW4
this deadline
+44
GW5
fixture-swing window
+41
GW6
last high-EV slot
+25
GW10
the decay

The curve only goes one way from here — and this season the post-window mispricing stacks on top of it. Every week you hold, the market closes the gap the window opened.

02THE SHOPPING LIST

The engine's live GW4 board

Not editorial — the model’s own projection: sixteen names, four per position, ranked on the next six gameweeks. That six-week total is the only number that matters on a wildcard.

THE MODEL'S GW4 WILDCARD BOARD

Firing the wildcard for GW4? These are the model’s highest-projected targets over the next 6 gameweeks — the horizon a wildcard squad actually lives in — with this week’s projection and the fixture run behind each one.

GOALKEEPERS
RayaARS · £6.0m · owned 38.6%
25.7 PTS / 6GWthis wk 3.2
sunbhaLEEnfoEVEliv
PickfordEVE · £5.5m · owned 8.7%
22.3 PTS / 6GWthis wk 2.8
totIPShulCHEarsnew
TzolakisHUL · £4.6m · owned 8.2%
21.1 PTS / 6GWthis wk 4.4
chenewEVEfulBREIPS
DonnarummaMCI · £5.5m · owned 7.9%
19.7 PTS / 6GWthis wk 4.2
munSUNlivIPSavlBHA
DEFENDERS
GabrielARS · £8.0m · owned 25.5%
24.5 PTS / 6GWthis wk 2.7
sunbhaLEEnfoEVEliv
GuéhiMCI · £6.0m · owned 18.7%
23.3 PTS / 6GWthis wk 4.7
munSUNlivIPSavlBHA
MitchellCRY · £4.5m · owned 4.9%
22.9 PTS / 6GWthis wk 6.6
IPSleeNFObhaNEWtot
CalafioriARS · £5.7m · owned 46.2%
22.9 PTS / 6GWthis wk 3.8
sunbhaLEEnfoEVEliv
MIDFIELDERS
B.FernandesMUN · £12.0m · owned 48.4%
50.7 PTS / 6GWthis wk 7.0
MCIfulTOTleeBOUche
MbeumoMUN · £7.9m · owned 26.4%
41.0 PTS / 6GWthis wk 4.5
MCIfulTOTleeBOUche
RogersCHE · £7.5m · owned 25.2%
40.3 PTS / 6GWthis wk 3.6
HULbreBOUeveTOTMUN
SakaARS · £9.5m · owned 11.2%
33.4 PTS / 6GWthis wk 5.1
sunbhaLEEnfoEVEliv
FORWARDS
João PedroCHE · £7.7m · owned 71.6%
32.0 PTS / 6GWthis wk 4.3
HULbreBOUeveTOTMUN
BarryEVE · £5.6m · owned 5.1%
31.7 PTS / 6GWthis wk 3.9
totIPShulCHEarsnew
HaalandMCI · £15.5m · owned 71.1%
26.9 PTS / 6GWthis wk 5.1
munSUNlivIPSavlBHA
Calvert-LewinLEE · £6.0m · owned 25.5%
18.4 PTS / 6GWthis wk 3.1
NEWCRYarsMUNsunbou

The four names above in each position cost £117.5m as a set of sixteen, so treat them as the shortlist rather than the squad: take the two cheapest keepers, build the spine from the defenders and midfielders with the greenest runs, and spend what is left on one forward the model rates over six gameweeks rather than one.

NUMBERS AS OF 2026-09-06 FROM THE LIVE FPL API + THE ONSIDE ENGINE · RANKED BY SIX-GAMEWEEK PROJECTION · LOW-CERTAINTY STARTERS EXCLUDED · UPPERCASE = HOME, lowercase = away

03THE PLAYBOOK

Fire or hold — then build it in order

Fire it this week if…
  • Two or more departed players in your 15 — the wildcard is the cheaper repair
  • Your squad is missing 2+ of the board’s premium anchors
  • You’re chasing in your mini-league — the reset is your swing at the field
Hold it if…
  • Zero or one departed player AND a top-decile league rank — don’t reset what’s working
  • Your premiums already match the board — two free transfers buy the same upgrade
  • You’re deliberately banking both wildcards for GW20–29 — valid, different math
  1. 1
    Count your departed players

    Anyone who left in the window scores zero forever. Two or more is the wildcard trigger.

  2. 2
    Pass the fire/hold gate above

    The chip is spent once. If the hold column describes you, close this tab until GW5.

  3. 3
    Draft from the board

    Two keepers from the top four (take the cheaper pair) · three board defenders + two enablers · Bruno and Saka as the midfield core with one window-arrival bet · Haaland + João Pedro + a budget third.

  4. 4
    Let the solver check your work

    The squad builder runs the full £100m optimisation under every FPL rule at once — it will find the structure your eye missed.

  5. 5
    Set the armband last

    Against the slate below — derby week distorts captaincy. Pick from the six-week run, not Saturday’s headline.

04THE SLATE

What GW4 actually looks like

GAMEWEEK 4 · THE SLATE · DEADLINE SAT 13:30 UK

A lunchtime deadline, then the Manchester derby

SAT 12 · 15:00Aston Villa v Nott'm Forest
SAT 12 · 15:00Bournemouth v Brentford
SAT 12 · 15:00Chelsea v Hull CityJoão Pedro at home to promoted opposition
SAT 12 · 15:00Crystal Palace v Ipswich TownMitchell owners: the fixture holds
SAT 12 · 15:00Liverpool v FulhamIsak at Anfield, in form
SAT 12 · 17:30Spurs v Everton
SAT 12 · 20:00Sunderland v Arsenal
SUN 13 · 14:00Coventry City v Brighton
SUN 13 · 16:30Man Utd v Man CityTHE DERBY — Haaland vs Bruno, armband week
MON 14 · 20:00Leeds v Newcastle

All times UK. The deadline is Saturday 13:30 — this season’s deadlines have mostly fallen on Friday evenings, so a Saturday-lunchtime lock is the one that catches returning managers out. Set an alarm.

05YOUR MOVE

Three doors out of this page

QUICK ANSWER

Wildcard Week 4: The Post-Window Reset

GW4 is the first deadline after the record transfer window shut — 87 departed players are still priced in the game. The model's live wildcard board, the squad skeleton, and when NOT to fire.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Analysis by the Onside model · model graded in public, ~15% more accurate than FPLPublic track recordMethodologyUpdated 2026-09-07
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Frequently Asked Questions

Yes — and this season more than most. The transfer window shut after GW3, 87 FPL players left the league while staying priced in the game, and six clubs were structurally rebuilt. GW4 is the first deadline where a full reset can price all of that in, with the international break giving two weeks to plan it.

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