CHIP WEEK · WILDCARD 1 · GW4 · 26/27
This is the week
the wildcard was made for.
The record transfer window shut after your squad was drafted. GW4 is the first deadline that can price all of it in — and the model’s highest-EV firing window of the season.
vs no-wildcard
Why GW4 is the season's optimised window
The model’s historical per-season gain of firing Wildcard 1 at GW4 versus never firing it — its preferred window in 70%+ of seasons.
Deadline-day departures who can never score again. Two or more in your 15 and the wildcard beats digging them out at −4 a time.
Six squads were rebuilt and the price list hasn’t caught up. GW3 put real minutes on the new signings — evidence, not guesswork, and it decays weekly.
The curve only goes one way from here — and this season the post-window mispricing stacks on top of it. Every week you hold, the market closes the gap the window opened.
The engine's live GW4 board
Not editorial — the model’s own projection: sixteen names, four per position, ranked on the next six gameweeks. That six-week total is the only number that matters on a wildcard.
The live board is regenerating for the next deadline — the case on this page is unchanged while it refreshes.
Fire or hold — then build it in order
- ✓Two or more departed players in your 15 — the wildcard is the cheaper repair
- ✓Your squad is missing 2+ of the board’s premium anchors
- ✓You’re chasing in your mini-league — the reset is your swing at the field
- —Zero or one departed player AND a top-decile league rank — don’t reset what’s working
- —Your premiums already match the board — two free transfers buy the same upgrade
- —You’re deliberately banking both wildcards for GW20–29 — valid, different math
- 1Count your departed players
Anyone who left in the window scores zero forever. Two or more is the wildcard trigger.
- 2Pass the fire/hold gate above
The chip is spent once. If the hold column describes you, close this tab until GW5.
- 3Draft from the board
Two keepers from the top four (take the cheaper pair) · three board defenders + two enablers · Bruno and Saka as the midfield core with one window-arrival bet · Haaland + João Pedro + a budget third.
- 4Let the solver check your work
The squad builder runs the full £100m optimisation under every FPL rule at once — it will find the structure your eye missed.
- 5Set the armband last
Against the slate below — derby week distorts captaincy. Pick from the six-week run, not Saturday’s headline.
What GW4 actually looks like
A lunchtime deadline, then the Manchester derby
All times UK. The deadline is Saturday 13:30 — this season’s deadlines have mostly fallen on Friday evenings, so a Saturday-lunchtime lock is the one that catches returning managers out. Set an alarm.
Captaincy in derby week
Derby week distorts captaincy: the two most-owned premiums meet each other, and the Saturday slate closes before Old Trafford kicks off. The engine’s GW4 ladder, straight from the board above:
Home derby, on everything United create — penalties, free kicks, corners. The board’s highest GW4 number by almost two points.
Sunderland away, Saturday night — your armband is settled before the derby kicks off. The nerve-saver with a real ceiling.
Away derby, 71% owned. Captaining him wins you nothing on the field — it stops the field winning on you. Rank protection, not rank attack.
Three doors out of this page
Wildcard Week 4: The Post-Window Reset
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
| Club | GW4 | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COVCoventry City | BHA(H) | NFO(A) | NEW(H) | TOT(A) | FUL(H) | SUN(H) | EVE(A) | CRY(H) | LEE(A) | IPS(H) | 2.50 |
CRYCrystal Palace | IPS(H) | LEE(A) | NFO(H) | BHA(A) | NEW(H) | TOT(A) | LIV(H) | COV(A) | HUL(H) | CHE(A) | 2.80 |
AVLAston Villa | NFO(H) | TOT(A) | BRE(H) | NEW(A) | MCI(H) | FUL(H) | MUN(A) | SUN(H) | IPS(A) | EVE(H) | 2.90 |
BOUBournemouth | BRE(H) | LIV(H) | CHE(A) | SUN(H) | MUN(A) | LEE(H) | IPS(A) | NFO(H) | FUL(A) | BHA(H) | 2.90 |
CHEChelsea | HUL(H) | BRE(A) | BOU(H) | EVE(A) | TOT(H) | MUN(H) | SUN(A) | LEE(H) | NFO(A) | CRY(H) | 2.90 |
IPSIpswich Town | CRY(A) | EVE(A) | FUL(H) | MCI(A) | NFO(H) | HUL(A) | BOU(H) | TOT(A) | AVL(H) | COV(A) | 2.90 |
TOTSpurs | EVE(H) | AVL(H) | MUN(A) | COV(H) | CHE(A) | CRY(H) | LEE(A) | IPS(H) | SUN(A) | FUL(H) | 2.90 |
ARSArsenal | SUN(A) | BHA(A) | LEE(H) | NFO(A) | EVE(H) | LIV(A) | HUL(H) | NEW(A) | MCI(H) | BRE(A) | 3.00 |
LIVLiverpool | FUL(H) | BOU(A) | MCI(H) | BRE(A) | BHA(H) | ARS(H) | CRY(A) | MUN(H) | EVE(A) | SUN(H) | 3.00 |
MCIMan City | MUN(A) | SUN(H) | LIV(A) | IPS(H) | AVL(A) | BHA(H) | NFO(A) | FUL(H) | ARS(A) | LEE(H) | 3.00 |
NEWNewcastle | LEE(A) | HUL(H) | COV(A) | AVL(H) | CRY(A) | EVE(H) | FUL(A) | ARS(H) | BHA(A) | MUN(H) | 3.00 |
BHABrighton | COV(A) | ARS(H) | SUN(A) | CRY(H) | LIV(A) | MCI(A) | BRE(H) | HUL(A) | NEW(H) | BOU(A) | 3.10 |
FULFulham | LIV(A) | MUN(H) | IPS(A) | HUL(H) | COV(A) | AVL(A) | NEW(H) | MCI(A) | BOU(H) | TOT(A) | 3.10 |
HULHull City | CHE(A) | NEW(A) | EVE(H) | FUL(A) | BRE(H) | IPS(H) | ARS(A) | BHA(H) | CRY(A) | NFO(H) | 3.10 |
NFONott'm Forest | AVL(A) | COV(H) | CRY(A) | ARS(H) | IPS(A) | BRE(A) | MCI(H) | BOU(A) | CHE(H) | HUL(A) | 3.10 |
EVEEverton | TOT(A) | IPS(H) | HUL(A) | CHE(H) | ARS(A) | NEW(A) | COV(H) | BRE(A) | LIV(H) | AVL(A) | 3.20 |
MUNMan Utd | MCI(H) | FUL(A) | TOT(H) | LEE(A) | BOU(H) | CHE(A) | AVL(H) | LIV(A) | BRE(H) | NEW(A) | 3.30 |
SUNSunderland | ARS(H) | MCI(A) | BHA(H) | BOU(A) | LEE(H) | COV(A) | CHE(H) | AVL(A) | TOT(H) | LIV(A) | 3.30 |
BREBrentford | BOU(A) | CHE(H) | AVL(A) | LIV(H) | HUL(A) | NFO(H) | BHA(A) | EVE(H) | MUN(A) | ARS(H) | 3.40 |
LEELeeds | NEW(H) | CRY(H) | ARS(A) | MUN(H) | SUN(A) | BOU(A) | TOT(H) | CHE(A) | COV(H) | MCI(A) | 3.40 |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Yes — and this season more than most. The transfer window shut after GW3, 87 FPL players left the league while staying priced in the game, and six clubs were structurally rebuilt. GW4 is the first deadline where a full reset can price all of that in, with the international break giving two weeks to plan it.
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