GW6 — the latest high-EV firing window
The model identifies three high-EV Wildcard 1 firing windows: GW4 (+47 points), GW5 (+44), and GW6 (+41). After GW6, the EV drops to +35 by GW8 and below +25 by GW10. The GW4-GW6 window is where 70%+ of model-optimal WC1 spend lands.
GW6 wins when you have the most information of the three windows. You've seen 5 GWs of minutes, 5 GWs of set-pieces, 5 GWs of price changes, the second international break is in the past, and the GW7-12 fixture swing is fully visible.
If your conviction at GW4 was 60% on the right structural reset, GW6 conviction is typically 80%+. The 3-point EV difference is partially offset by reduced reset risk.
When GW6 beats GW4
Three GW6-beats-GW4 conditions:
1. Your GW1-4 fixture run was unusually swingy (3+ fixture-swing events in the data). The added information clarity at GW6 is worth more than the time-decay EV loss.
2. A premium-mid anchor (Bruno or Saka or Palmer) had an injury scare in GW3-5 that's now confirmed-clear. Holding until GW6 lets you know which premium is the right structural pick.
3. A clear template differential (Isak, João Pedro, Semenyo) emerges in GW3-5 as a top-3 captain. Building around a captaincy edge that wasn't obvious at GW4 is a +5-8 point season-long uplift that beats the 3-point EV loss.
Otherwise, GW4 wins. GW6 is for the manager who needs more information than the average WC1 buyer.
The GW6 wildcard squad blueprint
The model's GW6 wildcard skeleton (26/27 baseline, fixture-conditional):
GK: Roefs + £4m rotation DEF: Gabriel + Robinson + Tarkowski + Murillo + £4.5m bench MID: Bruno + Saka + Semenyo (Man City, not Bournemouth — check your City exposure) + Rogers + £4.5m bench FWD: Haaland + João Pedro + Thiago
The GW6 skew vs GW4: more conviction on Semenyo as the £7m mid-attacker (5 GWs of Bournemouth data), less on Palmer (5 GWs of Alonso-tenure data confirms or denies the bounce), more on Murillo as the rising defender (5 GWs of Forest minutes data).
The £100m total budget assumes 26/27 inflation lands at +£3-4m vs 25/26 closing prices. If the inflation lands higher, the GW6 squad swaps João Pedro for Thiago + adds Foden at £8m.