Who's most likely to score in every MD2 fixture
26-man squads ingest from football-data.org once federations confirm.
The per-player threats engine activates once 26-man squad rosters are populated on football-data.org. In the meantime, the curated captain shortlist on /fantasy/captain/md-2 is using our PL + non-PL star pool.
Engine target: ~140 named players (top 6 threats × 24 fixtures) once squads are live, instead of the 7-name curated shortlist.
Each fixture's expected goals are derived from the Onside Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson — Bayesian-shrunk attack/defence rates per team (the engine that runs the model record on /world-cup-2026/model-record). Team goals are then distributed across the 26-man squad by published position priors (Eggels et al. 2017), with role boosters for likely set-piece / penalty takers and a form multiplier from any live MD goals/assists. Outputs only — the tuned constants stay private.
Captain picks that delivered 7 / 7 in MD1
- The Onside model captain shortlist for every WC matchday
- Plus differentials, value board, and the first FPL 26/27 picks
- Same engine that powers our Premier League tools
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