World Cup 2026 semi-finals — France v Spain, England v Argentina: predictions, dates and live champion probabilities
The Final Four
France, Spain, England and Argentina. Two semi-finals, one trophy, and a model that has to put a number on all of it before a ball is kicked.
Too close to call. The model leans France at 51% to go through — inside the margin where it is really just saying “I don’t know”.
Too close to call. The model leans England at 52% to go through — inside the margin where it is really just saying “I don’t know”.
WHO LIFTS IT · 10,000-RUN SIMULATION
FULL BOARD →Who is left in the World Cup 2026?
Eight became four
The cleanest round of the tournament: no upsets, no shootouts, and the model's four favourites all advanced.
The favourites all held
For the first time in this tournament, a knockout round produced no upset at all. Every one of the four higher-rated sides went through — though England and Argentina both needed an extra thirty minutes to do it.
Morocco’s run ends at the last eight
The story of the tournament — a Round-of-32 win over the Netherlands on penalties, then Canada dismantled 3-0 — finally met a France side that did not blink. 2-0, and the most-watched underdog run of 2026 is over.
A semi-final nobody would have drawn
France v Spain is the top two ranked teams in the world meeting a round early. England v Argentina is the reigning champions against a side that has now won three knockout ties by a single goal. There is no easy half of this bracket.
World Cup 2026 semi-finals — common questions
Who is left in the World Cup 2026?›
Four teams: France, Spain, England and Argentina. France beat Morocco 2-0 and Spain beat Belgium 2-1; England beat Norway 2-1 after extra time and Argentina beat Switzerland 3-1 after extra time. The semi-finals are France v Spain (Tuesday 14 July, AT&T Stadium, Arlington) and England v Argentina (Wednesday 15 July, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta).
When are the World Cup 2026 semi-finals?›
France v Spain is on Tuesday 14 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. England v Argentina is on Wednesday 15 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The third-place play-off is on 18 July at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, and the final is on Sunday 19 July at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey.
Who does the model predict will win the World Cup 2026?›
Live champion probabilities from our 10,000-run Monte Carlo are on this page and refresh hourly. With four evenly-matched sides left, no team is a runaway favourite — which is the honest answer, and the numbers say so rather than dressing it up.
How accurate has Onside been at this World Cup?›
Our model's favourite came through in 63 of 76 decisive matches — 82.9%. In the knockout rounds specifically, our favourite advanced in 20 of 24 ties, and the quarter-finals were a clean 4 from 4. Every call, including all 13 misses, is published and graded at /model-record.
Who won the World Cup 2026 quarter-finals?›
France beat Morocco 2-0, Spain beat Belgium 2-1, England beat Norway 2-1 after extra time, and Argentina beat Switzerland 3-1 after extra time. All four higher-ranked sides advanced — the only knockout round of the tournament with no upset.
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