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QUICK ANSWER

Is Rafael Leão in the World Cup 2026?

Yes — Rafael Leão is in Portugal's 26-man World Cup 2026 squad and plays his club football for AC Milan. Portugal are in Group K; their next match is against DR Congo. Onside's model gives Portugal a 69% chance to reach the Round of 16 and 8.1% to win the tournament.
● NEXT FIXTURE · GROUP K

When does Rafael Leão play next?

Rafael Leão and Portugal face Uzbekistan on Tue 23 Jun, 18:00 BST (Tue, Jun 23, 1:00 PM ET) in Houston — Group K MD2.

🇵🇹
Portugal
FIFA #5
HOME
VS
MD2
🇺🇿
Uzbekistan
FIFA #50
Model verdict
Portugal 85%Draw 10%Uzbekistan 5%
Match prediction →Probable lineup →Advance scenarios →
PORTUGAL · GROUP K · AC MILAN

Rafael Leão

PORTUGALPL · AC MILAN

“Rafael Leão carries Portugal's World Cup hopes through Group K — model projects — pts-per-90 across the three group-stage fixtures.”

ONSIDE AI · MODEL v5

PROJ PPG · MODEL
—
vs ALL OUTFIELDS IN TOP-100
0.07.0
HOW FAR DOES LEÃO GO?
ROUND OF 16
69%
QUARTER-FINAL
43%
SEMI-FINAL
27%
FINAL
15%
CHAMPION
8.1%

Cumulative probabilities · Updated each match · 60-min refresh

PHOTO · WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

TOURNAMENT STATS · UPDATES EVERY MATCH

Live stat sheet

Matches
—
pre-debut
Minutes
—
Goals
0
Assists
0
Clean Sheets
—
outfield
xG
—
pre-debut
Proj xP/90
—
model
Fantasy pts
0
Onside calc

Stats refresh after every match (60s ISR + football-data 15s upstream cache). xG is approximated until shot-level data ships; clean sheets currently track GKs only.

ONSIDE MODEL · TOURNAMENT IMPACT MAP

Leão's match-by-match expected output

Per-match expected points combine the model's win probability for Portugal, projected per-90 output, and assumed minutes share. Cells dim as the journey grows uncertain.

MD 117 Jun
vs cod
82%
0.0EXP PTS
MD 223 Jun
vs uzb
85%
0.0EXP PTS
MD 327 Jun
vs col
47%
0.0EXP PTS
R16
Round of 16
69%
0.0EXP PTS
QF
Quarter-final
43%
0.0EXP PTS
SF
Semi-final
27%
0.0EXP PTS
FINAL
Final
15%
0.0EXP PTS

Knockout cells dashed to signal contingency · Click any group cell to open the prediction.

ONSIDE RADAR · WC 2026 MODEL

Rafael Leão — the player profile

Portugal #5 · AC Milan

5-AXIS PROFILE
ATTACK69PLAYMAKING74TACTICAL89PHYSICAL87DEFENDING71
Rafael LeãoAverage pro · 75
ONSIDE MODEL · WC 2026 PROJECTION
EXP. GOALS · TMT
0.1
across the tournament
EXP. ASSISTS · TMT
0.1
across the tournament
xG / MATCH
0.02
model expectation
xA / MATCH
0.02
model expectation
MINUTES SHARE
70%
rotation-risk band
POSITION
—
AC Milan

Ratings synthesised by Onside's model from team rank + position cohort + recent fixtures. Refreshed every 60 minutes.

Rafael Leão's group-stage fixtures

3 MATCHES · MODEL WIN-PROBABILITIES SHOWN

vs DR Congo (home)
MD1 · Wed 17 Jun · 17:00 UTC · Houston
82%/11%/7%
WIN · DRAW · LOSE
vs Uzbekistan (home)
MD2 · Tue 23 Jun · 17:00 UTC · Houston
85%/10%/5%
WIN · DRAW · LOSE
vs Colombia (away)
MD3 · Sat 27 Jun · 23:30 UTC · Miami Gardens
47%/25%/28%
WIN · DRAW · LOSE

Other Portugal stars at WC 2026

PREMIER LEAGUE PLAYERS IN THE SQUAD

José Sá
Wolves
Diogo Dalot
Man Utd
Matheus Nunes
Man City
Rúben Dias
Man City
Bruno Fernandes
Man Utd
Bernardo Silva
Man City
Pedro Neto
Chelsea

More World Cup 2026

Full Portugal pagePortugal's chances at the World CupGolden Boot boardFantasy captainsAll predictions
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