Who will win Portugal vs DR Congo?
Portugal vs DR CongoWin Probability & Model Prediction
Onside's AI model gives Portugal 57%, draw 27%, and DR Congo 16%. Portugal is the model favourite (moderate confidence) for this World Cup 2026 Group K fixture on Wednesday.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Portugal vs DR Congo World Cup 2026 prediction
Onside's model gives Portugal 57%, draw 27%, and DR Congo 16% — portugal favoured. Calibrated against the rolling tournament hit-rate; every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.
Portugal vs DR Congo prediction score
Expected scoreline: 2–1 — rounded from the bivariate-Poisson expected goals (Portugal 2, DR Congo 1). The full top-five most-likely scorelines are on this page below.
Portugal vs DR Congo head to head
Group K fixture at Houston, kickoff Wed 17 Jun, 17:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (POR #5 vs COD #46), confederation, and live MD1+ form learned from this tournament's results.
Portugal vs DR Congo line up
Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.
Model favoured Portugal — they couldn't separate. Draws count against favourite-wins-only accuracy.
Ranking gap is the story
Portugal sit 41 places above DR Congo in the FIFA ranking (#5 vs #46) — a gap of that size is hard for the underdog to close in a one-off match. Portugal comes out at 57%, DR Congo at 16%, with the rest on the draw. Treated as a moderate call rather than a foregone conclusion.
How the teams compare
The PL names in each squad
- José SáWolves
- Diogo DalotMan Utd
- Matheus NunesMan City
- Rúben DiasMan City
- Bruno FernandesMan Utd
- Bernardo SilvaMan City
- Pedro NetoChelsea
- Yoane WissaNewcastle
- Aaron Wan-BissakaWest Ham
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Onside’s engine called 67 of 80 decisive World Cup matches — 84%, and 24 of 28 in the knockouts. It is now pointed at Fantasy Premier League, where it scores 0.86 mean absolute error across 51,518 out-of-sample predictions.
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