Who will win Manchester City vs Newcastle United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MCI goals down, NEW goals across
| MCI ↓ | NEW 0 | NEW 1 | NEW 2 | NEW 3 | NEW 4 | NEW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| MCI 1 | 6.7% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| MCI 2 | 8.6% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| MCI 3 | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| MCI 4 | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| MCI 5 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.6%.
Manchester City v Newcastle United
Onside's model gives Manchester City a 56% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 26, with 23% on the draw and 21% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 2–1 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 2.22 to 1.13. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).