QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brighton vs Everton?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Brighton vs Everton in Gameweek 15: Brighton 48%, draw 27%, Everton 25%. The score pick is Brighton 10 Everton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BHA goals down, EVE goals across

BHAEVE 0EVE 1EVE 2EVE 3EVE 4EVE 5
BHA 07.8%5.4%3.6%1.3%0.3%0.1%
BHA 19.4%12.8%6.1%2.1%0.6%0.1%
BHA 29.1%9.7%5.1%1.8%0.5%0.1%
BHA 35.2%5.5%2.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%
BHA 42.2%2.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%
BHA 50.7%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.9%.

Sat 12 Dec · 15:00 UK · GW15 · model pl-dc-v2

Brighton v Everton

Onside's model gives Brighton a 48% chance of beating Everton in Gameweek 15, with 27% on the draw and 25% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 10 Everton, from expected goals of 1.69 to 1.06. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Brighton
48%
Draw
27%
Everton
25%
Model pick: 10 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.691.06
★ MODE
11
12.8%
21
9.7%
10
9.4%
20
9.1%
00
7.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
52%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
55%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brighton
Attack ranks #5 and defence #4 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Everton
Attack ranks #13, defence #6. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.691.06.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW15 predictions
Brighton vs Everton Prediction — GW15 Score & Win Probability