QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Everton vs Manchester City?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Everton vs Manchester City in Gameweek 18: Everton 32%, draw 28%, Manchester City 40%. The score pick is Everton 12 Manchester City, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, MCI goals across

EVEMCI 0MCI 1MCI 2MCI 3MCI 4MCI 5
EVE 07.6%8.8%8.3%4.6%1.9%0.6%
EVE 15.7%13.0%9.5%5.2%2.1%0.7%
EVE 24.0%6.6%5.4%3.0%1.2%0.4%
EVE 31.5%2.5%2.1%1.1%0.5%0.2%
EVE 40.4%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
EVE 50.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.

Wed 30 Dec · 20:00 UK · GW18 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Manchester City

Onside's model gives Everton a 32% chance of beating Manchester City in Gameweek 18, with 28% on the draw and 40% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 12 Manchester City, from expected goals of 1.14 to 1.64. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Everton
32%
Draw
28%
Manchester City
40%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.141.64
★ MODE
11
13.0%
12
9.5%
01
8.8%
02
8.3%
00
7.6%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Everton
Attack ranks #13 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Manchester City
Attack ranks #2, defence #2. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.141.64.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW18 predictions
Everton vs Manchester City Prediction — GW18 Score & Win Probability