QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton in Gameweek 18: Tottenham Hotspur 32%, draw 26%, Brighton 42%. The score pick is Tottenham Hotspur 12 Brighton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

TOT goals down, BHA goals across

TOTBHA 0BHA 1BHA 2BHA 3BHA 4BHA 5
TOT 06.0%5.8%5.5%2.8%1.1%0.3%
TOT 15.8%12.2%8.4%4.3%1.7%0.5%
TOT 25.4%8.4%6.4%3.3%1.3%0.4%
TOT 32.8%4.3%3.3%1.7%0.6%0.2%
TOT 41.1%1.6%1.3%0.6%0.2%0.1%
TOT 50.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Wed 30 Dec · 20:00 UK · GW18 · model pl-dc-v2

Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton

Onside's model gives Tottenham Hotspur a 32% chance of beating Brighton in Gameweek 18, with 26% on the draw and 42% on an away win. The score prediction is Tottenham Hotspur 12 Brighton, from expected goals of 1.53 to 1.54. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Tottenham Hotspur
32%
Draw
26%
Brighton
42%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.531.54
★ MODE
11
12.2%
12
8.4%
21
8.4%
22
6.4%
00
6.0%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
59%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
63%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #9 and defence #12 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Brighton
Attack ranks #5, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.531.54.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW18 predictions
Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton Prediction — GW18 Score