Who will win Manchester City vs Manchester United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
MCI goals down, MUN goals across
| MCI ↓ | MUN 0 | MUN 1 | MUN 2 | MUN 3 | MUN 4 | MUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| MCI 1 | 7.2% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| MCI 2 | 8.6% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| MCI 3 | 5.9% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| MCI 4 | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| MCI 5 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.0%.
Manchester City v Manchester United
Onside's model gives Manchester City a 59% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 30, with 23% on the draw and 18% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 2–1 Manchester United, from expected goals of 2.06 to 1.15. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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