Who will win Newcastle United vs Leeds United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
NEW goals down, LEE goals across
| NEW ↓ | LEE 0 | LEE 1 | LEE 2 | LEE 3 | LEE 4 | LEE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW 0 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| NEW 1 | 7.9% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| NEW 2 | 8.4% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| NEW 3 | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| NEW 4 | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| NEW 5 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.2%.
Newcastle United v Leeds United
Onside's model gives Newcastle United a 45% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 30, with 27% on the draw and 28% on an away win. The score prediction is Newcastle United 2–1 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.81 to 1.17. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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