QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sunderland vs Newcastle United?

The Onside model makes Sunderland the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Newcastle United in Gameweek 34: Sunderland 37%, draw 28%, Newcastle United 35%. The score pick is Sunderland 12 Newcastle United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, NEW goals across

SUNNEW 0NEW 1NEW 2NEW 3NEW 4NEW 5
SUN 07.4%7.7%7.0%3.6%1.4%0.4%
SUN 16.3%13.2%9.0%4.6%1.8%0.5%
SUN 24.9%7.6%5.8%3.0%1.1%0.3%
SUN 32.1%3.2%2.5%1.3%0.5%0.1%
SUN 40.7%1.0%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.0%
SUN 50.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.

Sat 1 May · 15:00 UK · GW34 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Newcastle United

Onside's model gives Sunderland a 37% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 34, with 28% on the draw and 35% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 12 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 1.29 to 1.53. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Sunderland
37%
Draw
28%
Newcastle United
35%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 14:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.291.53
★ MODE
11
13.2%
12
9.0%
01
7.7%
21
7.6%
00
7.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Sunderland
Attack ranks #18 and defence #14 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.11 on goal rate.
Newcastle United
Attack ranks #7, defence #9. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.291.53.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
More GW34 predictions
Sunderland vs Newcastle United Prediction — GW34 Score