Who will win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
LIV goals down, CHE goals across
| LIV ↓ | CHE 0 | CHE 1 | CHE 2 | CHE 3 | CHE 4 | CHE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV 0 | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| LIV 1 | 5.0% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| LIV 2 | 6.1% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| LIV 3 | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| LIV 4 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| LIV 5 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.1%.
Liverpool v Chelsea
Onside's model gives Liverpool a 49% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 34, with 24% on the draw and 27% on an away win. The score prediction is Liverpool 2–1 Chelsea, from expected goals of 2.03 to 1.48. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 10 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).